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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

manpower requirements of economic development, as well as the social, or popular, demand for education. The two most important constraints on attaining these goals are the financial sacrifices the country is willing to make to reach them and, in many cases, the shortage of adequately trained teachers, a shortage that takes time to remedy, particularly when an attempt is made to diversify the system by strengthening areas such as technical education.
Demographic trends in the less developed countries, which are forcing educational planners to aim at a moving target, are an integral part of the problem. In a country with a youth population of 1,000,000 increasing at 3 percent per annum, a rise in the enrollment rate from 50 percent to 75 percent in 10 years means an increase in enrollments, not of 250,000 but of 538,000. This example illustrates only one of the more obvious ways in which demographic trends are of vital importance to educational planning. To explain further the demographic constraints on educational advance, a quick summary of prospective demographic trends is in order.
Population Structure
As Table 5 shows, the less developed areas are sharply divided from the developed ones in terms of fertility, with birth rates more than twice as high as those in the developed regions. Mortality conditions vary more widely among the less developed countries, with crude death rates ranging from 9.5 per 1,000 in "Other East Asia" to 20.9 per 1,000 in Africa. If smaller regions
TABLE 5
Crude Births and Death Rates by Major World Regions 1965-1970 Implied in United Nations Medium Variant Projections
	Crude Birth Rate	Crude Death Rate	Rate of Natural Increase
World Total	32.9	14.4	18.5
More developed countries	18.5	8.5	10.0
Less developed countries	39.4	17.3	22.1
Mainland China	32.3	19.0	13.2
Other east Asiaa	37.5	9.5	28.0
South Asia	42.1	17.0	25.1
Africa	45.4	20.9	24.4
Latin America	39.0	9.9	29.1
Europe	16.6	9.9	6.7
U.S.S.R.	19.4	7.1	12.3
Northern America	21.3	9.4	11.9
Japan	15.6	7.7	7.9
aExcludes Japan. Source: (21, pp. 34-36).rcent by 1985.